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Posted: December 24, 2009 6:26 PM CST
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2010 WILL BE BETTER-BUT 2009 WASN'T SO BAD
2009 was far better than I had expected. Legend SOLD more than $30,000,000.00 worth of rarities to collectors. That figures does NOT include auction representation. Those are REAL Sales numbers, not buying and selling added together. At the end of the year-especially the last 45 days, the strong gold market overflowed into our market and sales really took off. Most losses from earlier in the year (dumping of old inventory) were immediately erased. Serious collectors are back and they are aggressive. The only problem: supply. Regardless, the surge in activity made for a great year end. 2009 was not as bad as I thought it would have been.
Here are my issues for 2010:
2010 ISSUES
I actually expect 2010 to be better in many ways. If you have noticed, the rumblings about gradeflation have quieted a bit. The grading services woke up over a year ago and for 2009 seemed ready to finally attack and start implementing plans and changes to make their products better. CAC also became a much stronger competitor in the mix as well. Overgraded coins either are slowly being bought back, or are leaving the market at the numbers they deserve-cents on the dollar.
Coin docs are finally on the run. Sure, there is small rebel group who feel it is their right to mess with coins, but the public is tired of being screwed and the grading services have really stepped up their efforts to shut them down. I have no sympathy for these creeps. And I have even less sympathy for the dealers who insist on working with them to hawk their garbage. I predict that 2010 all of those crumbs will seriously fail-finally once and for all.
Its critical the grading services are doing what is right. Collectors do not realize how close to spiraling out of control they were just 2-3 years ago. They had a 20 year ride of power which made them feel above the law. Dealers were greedy and pushed the grading lines to their favor. No more, the grading services had a huge "wake up call" and are now more accountable-and a bit more accurate. Thats so much better for EVERYONE in the long run.
Another subject to me that is so critical. You would be surprised how many of the "name" dealers-the ones with the glitzy web sites can NOT grade-period. It would blow your mind as to how many of them can't even grade a raw coin. There is no barrier of entry. It seems any fool can slap up a web site and call themselves a dealer. I think 2010 will be a very trying year for these folks as people realize who they are and what they are NOT doing for collectors. This is where we need to have a stronger PNG (my next topic). I will always attack these wannbes-they are a danger to the numismatic consumer.
I think my biggest peavees for 2010 will still be with organizations like the PNG. This organization does NOTHING important-IN MY OPINION to help collectors. Please, what would being a member do for me? I have tried many times to get a resolution passed about them NOT allowing their members to intentionally doctor coins. If because I am not a member (by my choice) is a reason not turn a blind eye-then they are group with no merit in my eyes. In fact, it is very disturbing to learn which high ranking members openly back known felons or coin docs. I get disgusted looking through the membership rolls to see how many coin docs are there. Or, where were they when the issue of gradeflation almost destroyed the coin market? Why does tiny Consumer Alliance save more folks from dangerous telemarketers then the PNG? This organization deperatly needs a head to toe house cleaning or it should just shut its doors. I can write a book about its unworthyness.
So I think for 2010 a lot of the "dirty"laundry will be cleaned up. A big improvement from only 2 years ago.
2010 THE MARKET
Gee did we do some serious deals in December. Unfortunately, we are not allowed to mention them, but they were each into seven figures! ALL of the coins were SOLD to collectors. The appetite for TRUE GEM rarities is huge right now. We can not find enough supply. We think as collector confidence and financial ablities return, coins will face and unprecidented demand greater than what we just saw 2 years ago. It won't be a wild ride with the dreaded "investors" buying like mad. It will be well heeled collectors seeking to put away really nice coins for the long term. Just watch the Heritage FUN Auction, the prices will be beyond what most people are expecting. Of course the coins have to be all there too (and while there are some neat coins in the sale, there is no quanity of mindblowing coins). This is not like early last year when "investors" were dumping out of marginal to inferior coins.
I expect the top end of the coin market to rise about 15-20% overall in 2010. Dreck will finally fall to a resting place of a 10-20C on the dollar-where it belongs. At least the bad coins are slowly going away and while a ton of good coins can't found. Prices can only go up. It does not take a flood of people to make this happen. And fortunately (especially with gold) there are enough people trolling aorund for coins right now.
WHAT IF GOLD CRASHES?
It could be bad short term, but there are so many people who now want to buy gold. People are still uncomfortable with our financial system
and feel owning gold-any kind of gold is safe. We have seen MANY high end HIGHGRADE (MS65 and higher) Gold Type sets built and we've seen several high grade Saint and $10 Indian sets started in 2009. the rise in gold seems to have spurred collectors back into some series.
I think gold will float waiting for something desperate to make it jump again. In the beginning it was traders pumping up the price. Then they created a bubble that sucked in peopel to buy. Now we are ina topping off period waiting for direction. Everything i read says gold will only go higher. The one thing I can go by is what I do see-people are buying gold. So I expect 2010 (at least the first half) to be strong for gold and rare gold coins. And BTW, there are NOT many true GEM "better Saints" or $10 Indians in existance! That means the potential for prices moving up-is inevitiable.
MY PROMISES FOR 2010
My partners would love for me to say I'll quit making public comments-but I can't. I will keep up my fight about gradeflation, coin doctors, wannabes, and everything I see that as a collector could hurt the hobby. I do not do any of this for attention, I really love coins and I really want to see everyone get the products and coins they are promised. I go nuts when I see other dealers who just "cave in" to the pack. That will never be me. I am fortunate that my business has grown to a point where I have the ear of every top mover and shaker in the hobby. And believe me, they all probably can't stand me-but I do not care! If I see issues, I am right in their faces.
As far as Legend, I promise to continue to blow away everyone else with superior quality and service. I know this is hard to believe, but I look at EVERY SINGLE McCLaren coin we sell to collectors. While I get blasted by jealous fools on chatrooms for being a big shot dealer, I have hundreds of emails thanking us for the great coins (like 1940 50C PCGS MS65 or a 79S $1 PCGS MS66) we have sold from that collection. Of course for those who spend more, you better believe BOTH George and I look at every coin. How other dealerships can sleep at night by just selling plastic amazes us. But you have my word, we will never change! When it comes to selling coins to collectors, I went into retail to be a leader, NOT a follower!
So basically, I promise not to change for 2010. Like me or not, I am who I am with no appologies. I just want the best for everyone invloved in coin collecting!
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