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Rare Coins and gold from Legend Numismatics

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BUY, SELL, HOLD

MAY 2001

Normally I don't make my opinions public about specifics in the marketplace. But with so many new collectors being lead astray or being unsure, I've decided to print my thoughts. Everything listed and suggested is reasoned via proven facts, known activity in the market, and sometimes gut feelings. Nothing I say here is guaranteed. I picked the series I feel had the most interest from the public. Again, these are my opinions and should NOT be taken as the final word.

EARLY COPPER: Buy! Half Cents and Large cents enjoy HUGE collector bases. These coins in ANY grade and color of MS are RARE. Even rarer are the proofs. For those of you new to coins, ONLY buy certified pieces. We strongly suggest 64RB or better. Reds are down right rare in any grade and series. Don't afraid to buy coins with some light stains-just beware of PVC (green spots).

INDIAN CENTS: MSRD. Buy. The demand seems never ending. People ARE building sets in MS64RD and higher (RB's are overlooked). The supply is very limited. Even though prices have strongly risen in the past two years, I still see some room for immediate growth.

INDIAN CENTS: PRRD. Hold. A few dealers ruined a great thing in this area. There were tons of collectors. But one sale began a major disruption of the market (Superior 2000) that has lasted for a year and half. Prices virtually doubled over night. And of course dealers ran with it. The public slowed collecting this series. I believe this series still has tons of potential, but right now it's absurd to pay $5,000.00+ for any PR67RD with a pop. of say 10 pieces.

LINCOLN CENTS: MS65RD. SELL! The markets too super charged. There were 4 of 5 major collectors going against each other for coins. 3 of the 5 are now done. The last two are not stupid. Even though the average collector DOES buy Lincoln's, they are smart enough to stay away when a series has doubled virtually over night. I think you'll be able to but them 20% cheaper in 6 months.

NICKELS: ALL TYPES. Buy! This series is lack luster right now. You can build all kinds of different sets really reasonable in GEM. Nickels aren't the rarest coins, but for a round a $1,000.00 to buy a GEM from the 1800's sounds real good to me!

SILVER TYPE PROOFS: Buy! I have always loved coins with mintages UNDER 1,000 at a cost of under $1,000.00. What is the down side? Even in GEM, the mintages are still finite. Those are especially good values too (65-69). Most higher graded pieces are still off by as much as 60% from their 1989 highs. Nice coins are becoming harder to locate.

SILVER TYPE MS: Buy! Overlooked for so long because MS coin's just aren't a flashy as the proofs. You always have the possibility of a small hoard popping up, but for the most part, the majority of the coins are low pops and really are hard to locate. The bigger coins like Halves and Dollars are plane out undervalued in MS63 and higher.

TWENTIETH CENTURY TYPE: Hold. I'm sure great arguments can be made about why you should buy series like Mercury Dimes, Standing Quarters or Buffalos. I do acknowledge people collect them in ALL grades. I have always questioned their true rarties (I believe at anytime a major hoard could appear). Recently the market has skyrocketed due to the new players who have entered through the internet. Many of these series they remember from when they were growing up. Now that they have money, these collectors HAVE to have the coin-at whatever it takes. I do not think there is a true reality in some of these areas right now. May be in a few months the premiums will subside and you can buy these coins for less.

BUST DOLLARS. Hold. Still popular. Still in demand. But prices seem a bit wacko on coins they shouldn't be (like 1799 $ at $7,500.00 WHOLESALE in AU55). Plus, I think most of the good stuff is long off the market and what's floating around are just low end remnants. I don't think prices will drop much, but if you wait a bit, at least you won't be paying premiums for buying coins "in heat". Special NOTE: MS63 and higher coins have been and still are under valued.

MORGAN DOLLARS PR: Hold. This market is strange. The Cameo and Ultra Cameo sides are red hot in all grades. But the regular PR Morgans in GEM are weak. Still, we've been building two PR64 sets for a year now, and can't find the coins. It's best to wait for this series to show direction.

MORGAN DOLLARS MS: Buy! The cycle seems to be off. I strongly like ANY better date GEM. I can tell you for a fact, this is the one area of the market that the grading services are being the tightest on. They just are NOT making fresh coins. Plus, on the higher end, there are several collectors lurking. A GEM Morgan with a pop. of less than 50 is really tough to find. Remember, Morgans are probably the most popular collecting area in all of numismatics.

MORGAN DOLLARS DMPL'S: Buy! If this area wasn't a sub set of Morgans, these coins would be selling for multiples of what they are now. The key is to make sure the coin you buy has REAL mirrors. MS64 and higher are the magic grades for better dates. Even commoner coins in GEM 65+ with strong eye appeal are sound buys at today's levels (I love MS65+ CC's).

GOLD PR: Buy! The Harry Bass Collection dumped probably the biggest group of GEM PR RARE gold ever to hit the market over the past two years. It over whelmed dealers and spooked all but the smartest collectors. Piece by piece this material has been disappearing . Collector interest is on the rebound. Don't you agree that a coin like a 1860 G$1 PCGS PR66 at just under $20,000.00 is a super buy? It has a mintage of 20 and a pop. of 2. This series over corrected in my opinion. If you can afford it, buy some now!

RARE GOLD MS: Hold. Forever the target of hype and telemarketers. Only the really RARE coins are worth buying, but their prices are too steep anyway. Be very selective in what you buy here. My current favorite area (actually my longtime favorite) is $3 gold in MS63 and finer. Even the $3 AU's with mintages of LESS than 4000 are great deals. I do also believe early gold (pre 1834) is a strong buy in AU and higher.

GENERIC GOLD: Not sure. How's that for a tip! This is an area that is the most volatile in ALL of numismatics. There is a big push of $2 ½ and $5 Indian Gold going on right now. Stay away from that series for a while. I think the prices will drop by 10-20% over the summer. But how can you go wrong with MS64 Saints at $450-475.00? Those always have had an ability to have a quick "pop" at a decent % increase. I also think generic $10 Indians and semi-generic-rare $10 Indians represent very good value right now.

SILVER COMMEMS: Buy! I've said this for the past three years. I don't have a clue as to why you can still buy a gorgeous GEM MS65 Elgin for only $250.00. This is a great area to collect. All tastes and budgets can be accommodated. Many of these dates are not super rare, but neither are 80S Morgans and they still enjoy strong demand. The real high end MS67 stuff is grossly undervalued vs. the pops.. Very few of these higher end coins are surfacing at the moment. And you MUST buy ANY MATCHED ORIGINAL CHOICE or GEM set you get offered. Since the State Quarter program began, I've felt strongly that Commems would end up being the natural entry point for new collectors. It hasn't happened yet, but if it does, this series will explode in value!

If you have any questions or comments about what I have said here, please feel free to email or call us. And remember, rare coin collecting is a long term propostion!


 
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